The following from Don Parsons on the dramatic changes in the peak oil assessment:
The IEA, for the first time, has done a comprehensive survey of 800 oil fields covering three-quarters of the world’s existing production. Note their new estimate of the global decline rate of 6.7%, nearly double their previous estimate. This is truly an alarming rate of depletion, equal to 5.5 million bopd, which must be replaced each year just to keep production stable. This amounts to new discoveries of the magnitude of 15 billion bbls per year. We haven’t found that much oil in a single year in the last quarter century. In the last 15 years, discoveries have averaged less than half that amount. As the aging super giant fields, most of which were discovered pre-1970, go into decline, the global decline rate is likely to worsen.
Here’s the report, Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast.