Archive for category Business

“Stimulus or Sedative?” Thomas Sowell Never Disappoints

Sowell opens his succinct RCP post with an Abe Lincoln story: President Lincoln asked an audience how many legs a dog has, if you call the tail a leg? Some shouted “Five” but Lincoln corrected them saying that the answer was four. “The fact that you call a tail a leg does not make it a leg!”

The professor uses that tale to drive home the truth about the “stimulus” and the “jobs bill.” The idea behind stimulus, for example, is to get investors to invest, lenders to lend, and employers to employ. Prime the pump, put a little bit of water in to get the well flowing. That little bit of water, the government money, was never meant to restore the economy by itself, but to get the private business sector going. What has happened?

  • After the Bush-started stimulus in 2008–business spending fell by 28%.
  • Durable goods spending fell by 22%.
  • Four months after the TARP billions–large TARP banks made 23% fewer loans.
  • The velocity of money fell faster than at any time in the last half century.
  • The WSJ reports the “sharpest decline in lending since 1942.”

Why would banks lend when, “from the White House to Capitol Hill, politicians are coming up with all sorts of bright ideas for borrowers not to have to pay back what they borrowed…”  Why would investors invest when a substantial number of the consumers are unemployed? Why would employers employ when faced with higher taxes and more Obamacare mandates? In short, the outlook is uncertain and certainly more big government than private sector oriented.

Sowell points out that none of this is new: during the Great Depression of the 1930s, money velocity, lending, investing and employment were all lower than they were in the 1920s. The anti-buisness rhetoric and anti-business policies did not inspire any more confidence then than they do now. “In an atmosphere where nobody knows what the federal government is going to come up with next, people tend to hang on to their money until they have some idea of what the rules of the game are going to be.”

Economists have estimated that Roosevelt’s New Deal prolonged the depression by several years, how long will Barack Hussein Obama, Reid and Pelosi prolong our current difficulties?

Tom Motherway

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California Businesses Welcome in Nevada

One of the round table topics at our recent Reno Hayek Symposium dinner was state taxes and business environment. How did Nevada compare? Granted, Nevada has a deficit of some $880 Million, but that pales in significance to California’s, our immediate left coast neighbor has a current deficit of some $20 Billion. Remedies for each seem intractable but the pain index is surely greater the farther West you go.

Mark Bailey referred me to some testimony which highlighted a midyear 2009 comparison between the 50 states. The Tax Foundation presents an interesting comparison of data then available, “2009 Facts & Figures–How Does Your State Compare?’ I’ve shown below some selected categories (click image to enlarge):

Now this is just a thought, but I suspect that California taxes and fees and costs of doing business are going to increase. It’s a good bet they will increase at a more rapid rate than those in Nevada. Also, I would venture a guess that the total cost of living will proportionately increase and with the same dichotomy.

California businesses must compete internationally, particularly those in the tech world. And with the Obama deficit, debt, and unfunded liabilities about to create national pressure on all businesses, any advantage a business can gain at the margin will help it remain competitive worldwide.

So, all you frustrated California developers who have tech clients, come on over to Reno and take a look. We will be happy to introduce you to the people and the area. It’s really a friendly, help-your-neighbor place. Oh, and we’ll do our best to retire Harry Reid in November. Pity, but ol’ Nancy Pelosi will still be in office!

Tom Motherway


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Obamanomics Will Lead To Our Demise

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry to see the dynamic trio, Obama-Reid-Pelosi, ramming Obamacare down our throats at the small price tag of $950 Billion, oh yes and price controls on private insurers, expensive mandates on employers, and the government take over of 16% of the U.S. economy. Employers are not hiring, not investing, and not borrowing. At the very time jobs are needed businesses face health care uncertainty, higher taxes, falling consumer sentiment and high unemployment. Why invest if there aren’t going to be any consumers around to consume? Consumption is three quarters of the economy!

The only jobs the non-stimulus stimulus has created are government jobs–that would be the non-productive jobs that are a drag rather than a stimulus to the economy.

Speaking of economy, Robert Robb pens a dynamite article in Real Clear Politics today, The Chief Economic Worry About Democrats. With syllogistic logic he points out the elites lack of appreciation of investment capital and its function in the economy. Liberals assume a given level of economic output, a dangerously false assumption. Output doesn’t just happen it depends on investment capital. The government cannot supply that capital but can only redistribute what it takes by way of taxes. What it takes in taxes is withdrawn from private productive investment.

“Producers have to produce before consumers can consume. But producers cannot produce ex nihilo. Investment capital provides the financial bridge between production and consumption….In reality, however, the affluent provide most of the country’s investment capital. They are the ones with discretionary income. What the rich do with their money is very important economically.

“The Democrats want to raise taxes on the affluent and on corporations (which are repositories of investment capital). The numbers, and their effect on investment capital, are staggering..So, between Obama’s budget and the health care plan, that’s a shrinkage in the nation’s investment capital pool of up to $1.9 trillion over the next decade. But that’s only the beginning of the effects. Between Obama’s increased income tax rates, the income tax surcharge in the House health care plan, and state income taxes, the highest marginal income tax rate in most states will approach or exceed 50 percent. That will hugely discourage savings and investment by the affluent.”

“This tax-the-rich approach is justified as a matter of social justice. The government needs money, goes Democratic thinking, and it is fairer to get it from the rich than the middle class or the poor. Democrats also tend to believe that large disparities in income and large accumulations of wealth are evils to be ameliorated in their own right. The rich already pay a higher percentage of federal income taxes than they make in income. And the true social justice question shouldn’t be whether income or wealth disparities are increasing, but whether the lot of the poor is improving. Concentrating on the latter question leads to entirely different policy choices than concentrating on disparities.” (emphasis added)

Robb’s back to Adam Smith basics is brilliant, thus I’ve  perhaps over quoted in this post. What I suggest is a read of the whole article and selected comments following the article which are displayed by clicking on “COMMENTS” at the end of the article.

Tom Motherway

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While Complaining About Wall Street Bonuses…..Let’s Remember Some Other Abusive Compensation

Unionized public sector pay and pensions are out of control and increasingly contribute to our fiscal demise.mime-attachment[1]

According to the 2008 report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics while union members accounted for 12.4 percent of wage and salary workers, “the union membership rate for public sector workers (36.8 percent) was substantially higher than the rate for private industry workers (7.6 percent).”

And, USA Today reported in April, (a) public employees earned average benefits worth $13.38 per hour vs. $7.98 per hour for private sector workers, (b) overall average compensation for state and local workers was $39.25 an hour vs. $27.35 for private workers, and (c) a full-time government worker gets benefits worth and average of $27,830 per year, while a private workers average benefits are worth $16,598 per year.

Finally, we’ve all seen reports on the looming time-bomb of unfunded state and local retirement benefits. Greg D’Angelo of The Heritage Foundation reports that those governments have promised but not paid for “roughly $1.5 trillion” in retirement benefits. This coupled with early retirement ages, high percentages of last paid compensation and final year “promotions” exacerbate an already bad situation.

Perhaps, though, the most damnable aspect of public sector unionization is the unholy understanding that the unions campaign for the elected officials who in turn “take care of” the unions come payday. There is no check on this unholy alliance.

Tom Motherway

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The Real Party of Wall Street & Big Business….The Democratic Party

The Republican Party has been the party tagged with the Wall Street-Big Business Label. This has presented Democrats with a convenient collection basket which they pass around rather effectively. At the same time they promote the Republican business-association fallacy.

The Huffington Post’s November 19th article, The 15 Biggest Congressional Recipients of Wall Street Campaign Cash, is revealing. For the 2010 election cycle so far 11 0f the top 15 recipients are Democrats.  Here’s the list.

Rank Recipient Party Amount
15 Barney Frank D $387,749.00
14 Carolyn Maloney D $396,750.00
13 Ron Wyden D $404,750.00
12 John Thune R $407,950.00
11 Jim Himes D $430,123.00
10 Richard Shelby R $502,150.00
9 Blanche Lincoln D $515,000.00
8 Eric Cantor R $516,197.00
7 Arlen Specter D $552,175.00
6 Mark Kirk R $557,375.00
5 Michael Bennet D $612,804.00
4 Chris Dodd D $752,698.00
3 Harry Reid D $1,038,210.00
2 Kirsten Gillibrand D $1,173,400.00
1 Charles Schumer D $2,167,300.00

And it’s not only Wall Street. Jonah Goldberg’s December 9th post in National Review Online, The Real Fat-Cat Party, praises Tim Carney’s new book “Obamanomics” citing the drug industry’s contribution to Obama was 3.58 time its contribution to McCain. Jonah also mentions GE’s leadership of the U.S. Climate Action Partnership not because GE is a tree hugger but because it “stands to make billions from carbon pricing, thanks largely to investments in technologies that cannot survive in a free market without massive subsidies from Uncle Sam.”

The economists call this corporate influence buying “rent seeking,” that is the manipulation of government regulation and subsidies to attain revenue and business advantage that could not otherwise be attained in the free market. The political corollary for this is “vote seeking” or more appropriately, “power seeking!” The Democrats wrote the book on that.

So in essence we have a symbiotic relationship between big business-wall street and Congressional Democrats. I became personally aware of that when I questioned an old friend who was a partner in a Wall Street hedge fund on that fund’s employment of John Edwards the former Democratic Senator and VP Candidate. My chiding question was, is your firm going into the plaintiffs trial lawyer business! His response, no all these guys are Democrats and that’s where their money goes! In truth their connected at the hip and it has paid off for both sides. Just consider: the financial bailout, TARP, Obamacare, the House cap and trade bill, and the House financial regulatory package.

Who are the losers? We the taxpayers are. The small businesses which create a majority of the jobs and a majority of the innovation in this country are also losers. Likewise the younger generation will lose with the gigantic intergenerational transfer of benefits; the younger generation will get stuck with increasing deficits, an unsustainable mountain of debt, and a lower standard of living.

So the next time someone tries to blame it on the Republicans as the party of big business, set ‘em straight. It’s those damn Democrats!

Tom Motherway

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