Archive for category Financial Crisis

O’Driscoll Post: End of Euro?

Jerry O’Driscoll”s post on the Cato blog today will get your attention; it follows verbatim:

“Global equity markets are falling, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down around 250pts. A benchmark 10-year Italian government bond is yielding 7.4%. Every country whose sovereign debt went over the 7%-mark has required a bailout. I was in Italy a month ago, and the yield was under 6% (still pricey for a developed country).

A bailout of a country Italy’s size would be a gargantuan task — probably a larger effort than heretofore. It is beyond the capacity of the EU. Italy’s debt is just too large. I doubt China would purchase any real assets until labor-market reforms and pension reforms were enacted. China actually wants a return on its investments.

If the IMF gets involved, it would require massive new funds for which the US taxpayer would be on the hook for around 18%. I wonder how that would go over in the US House or even the Senate? That doesn’t mean the Obama administration won’t try to organize a rescue. The Fed has been backstopping the EU banks for some time.

Will the Euro survive? Will the global financial system survive?”

Jerry’s email answer to the last two questions was: “probably and possibly!” I’m not sure of the order he intended.

But see Italy Bond Attack Breaches Euro Defenses today on Bloomberg.com. The simple answer is that monetary governance without fiscal governance does not work. The sooner that is realized, the sooner sovereign bailouts will stop, and the sooner the European nations can begin a healthy recovery.

 

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Boomerang–A Great Read

I just finished Michael Lewis’s latest, Boomerang and can highly recommend it. As a non-economist reporter he tells the story of a world awash in cheap money and easy credit and tells it with reference to a few developed countries. Starting with Iceland, the first to go belly up when its fishermen decided to become investment bankers with credit advanced by European banks, he goes to the current zombie Greece. The Greeks borrowed not to invest but just to take exorbitant salaries and long vacations. Now the Irish, bless them, decided to become real estate developers in Ireland this with the funds borrowed from Irish and European banks; unfortunately the government decided to guarantee the banks against horrendous losses on the worthless real estate developments. Onto Germany whose citizens are disciplined not to over borrow or over spend, but whose banks were perfectly willing to lend to the Greeks and Irish without proper credit evaluation.

When he heads home to the US he focuses on his home state of California which is essentially bankrupt. First to fail though will not be the state government but the local municipalities the worst of which is Vallejo which filed for bankruptcy in May of 2008. There is, of course, more to come. Here’s a brief interview with the author:

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Is Papandreou the Only European Leader With Balls?

Is Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou the only European leader with “balls?” With Germany and France continuing to kick the can down the road and none of the nations calling for a referendum on the can kicking, it seems that the Greek Prime Minister is the only one with any sense. He has called for a referendum from the voters on whether to accept the latest edition of the European bank bailout. These are the same voters who have been rioting. The same voters who have been sucking money out of Germany.  The same voters who are accustom to handsome entitlements while cheating on their taxes. Politically, Papandreou is smart in letting the socialists rioters make their own democratic decision. Admittedly, it will not be a well informed decision. But then, in a socialist nation, how could it be?

The point for Europe, America, Asia and the world is the same: the sooner a real resolution is reached, the sooner a real recovery can commence. The contrary example is the real estate market in the U.S. where reaching the market bottom has been forestalled by Obama and the socialist left. The result has been the stagnation and real estate depression that we now witness. By the Greek call for a referendum, Papandreou has cut to the chase. And done so where democracy was born!

Economically, socialism doesn’t work, the European welfare state doesn’t work, and need I say that the American welfare state will not work? We cannot borrow and regulate ourselves into prosperity as Obama would have us believe.

Europe is broke. We are almost as broke. We have the advantage in that our fiscal policy and monetary policy are structured under one federal government. Europe, on the contrary, is a mess simply because it lacks that structure.

Hopefully the can kicking will stop and serious plans will be made to reorganize Europe so that it or its component nations can prosperously function in this economically interdependent world in which we live.

 

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What Happens When the Euro Plumets?

The prime concern of knowledgable financial analysts has been the Euro, its probable collapse, the consequent effect on the EU and, in turn, the world economy. I read and heartedly recommend John Muldin whose last articles lay out the all too obvious concerns. (See http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts. The basic subscription is free and very good)

In sum, the situation is that the ECB has been buying debt of the bankrupt nations, Greece followed by Portugal, Ireland and perhaps Spain in order to support the EU and more to the point the banks in each EU nation, including those of France and Germany. If ECB support is withdrawn, the banks holding the worthless paper at par, will no longer be solvent! This is the equivalent of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on steroids!

Assuming the worst for the sake of argument we must ponder the consequences in Europe. Runs on banks are real but probably unnecessary as the currency has no consistant value. Gold, diamonds and high value commodities work as mediums of ad hoc exchange. A barter economy ensues. Europe-dependent international trade at best slows and at worst pauses until enough mediums of exchange can be agreed upon.

The dollar, as the ready-albeit unjustified-medium surges to bubble proportions. US exports become dramatically more expensive for any remaining buyers. US export sales and production slow to deep recession levels. Layoffs ensue. GDP plumets. Federal and state government entitlement demands rise with no ready relief.

The Fed initiates QE3 flooding the economy with more (depreciated in real terms) dollars by buying increasingly worthless US debt.

Will the US which has enjoyed the dumb-fat luxury of being the world reserve currency since Bretton Woods follow the EU and fold? Will there be another substitute world reserve currency? Are all central banks becoming political animals or fiscal policy proxies? How will world trade right itself?

All that said, what’s the effect on your family, your business, your community, your nation and your investments? Is “guns and gold” the mantra of the day? Something to consider!

 

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Cartoon View on the Fed’s Obsession With Deflation

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Bust ‘em Up

Systemic risk is still upon us and is still real. The orgy of financial bailouts to sustain Wall Street has not changed the way big banks operate with our money. The Frank Dodd financial regulations law just passed did nothing to rein in the mammoth size of the big banks. And it is that size and the still viable risk-taking aspects of their businesses that causes “systemic risk.” Even after the recent bailouts, the five largest financial institutions are 20 percent larger than they were before the financial crisis, controlling $8.6 Trillion in assets. As a major part of the GDP, these firms are still too big to fail.

Clinton’s signature of the legislation repealing the Glass-Steagall Act which separated investment banking from commercial banking, was a mistake. The union of these two business functions one a risk taking trading business the other a money lending service business, generated large institutions that traded on taxpayer guarantees. In essence if they succeeded the shareholders won, if they failed the taxpayers bore the losses! While the Volker contribution to the recent legislation helped to mitigate this risk, it failed to eliminate it.

Thomas M. Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, in his NYT op-ed, To Big To Succeed, argues that we still have large systemic risk and will continue to so have until the big banks are broken up. As long as the big banks know they are too big to fail, they will feel protected, take undue risks and jeopardize the American taxpayers. This moral hazard must be stopped.

“More financial firms — with none too big to fail — would mean less concentrated financial power, less concentrated risk and better access and service for American businesses and the public. Even if they were substantially smaller, the largest firms could continue to meet any global financial demand either directly or through syndication.”

While trust-busting is not in my libertarian blood, I am persuaded by Honig’s position. Trading on my tax dollars, with me only on the downside of the bet, is not just or economic!

Bust ‘em up!

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There is No Spoonful of Sugar – The Case for Higher Taxes

This post is abbreviated from a more extensive essay by Stephen Benavides, a CPA and tax attorney.

If I were asked to give a professional opinion on the income statement of the United States I would be forced to qualify it or include a statement that without drastic and material changes of fortune the United States would cease to exist as a going concern. The three largest items in the budget for 2009 (the last year for which we have complete records) are Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt. None of these three are discretionary. In addition, the defense budget for that year is about the same as the interest on the national debt, but can defense spending be thought of as discretionary? ……

That same $2.4 trillion in tax revenue, representing the sum total of all taxes collected in the United States by the federal government, is sufficient only to pay for three of these four items. Unfortunately, we are now spending $4 trillion a year and one way of looking at our situation is that everything other than Medicare, Social Security, and interest on the national debt is being paid for with borrowed money. That is a 40% structural revenue shortfall!….

The United States is insolvent. From an accounting standpoint, from a business standpoint, for the sake of our sanity and the welfare of our children, this is unsustainable and borders on madness. A day of reckoning is here for our nation and its people. The longer we wait, the worse it will be, not only for ourselves but for the rest of the world since it is pretty obvious that when the United States start sneezing the rest of the world will soon have our cold.

Like all good tax guys I hate income taxes as much or more as any of you but I’m also a businessman. There is no magical way to get us out of this mess. The medicine is going to be bitter and there is no spoonful of sugar to help the medicine go down. The medicine that no one wishes to talk about is a material tax increase. By material, I don’t just mean an increase in tax on the wealthiest 1% of the country. I happen to believe that all citizens should be paying taxes yet our progressive system allows almost 50% of our citizenry to pay no federal income tax at all. I happen to feel strongly that everybody should be paying taxes and find arguments to the contrary revolting……

I hope this rant raises your attention level all the way to outrage! If you are not there yet, consider this: The Federal Reserve just raised your “taxes” again and took as much as 7-10% of your net worth by printing up billions and debasing the currency. This was a planned, considered move to monetize the debt and pay off our obligations with cheaper dollars. They have almost certainly set an inflationary spiral into motion as holders of our debt will want to be paid off or get substantially more interest to continue to finance our madness. Inflation is the most insidious of all taxes. An increase in marginal income tax rates only affects new and future income. Inflation taxes not only our future income but taxes our previously taxed income and all the wealth we have previously amassed in after-tax dollars. It is already too late to stop this from hurting you and your families.

My thanks to Steve Benavides for this post.

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Didn’t We Just Have Financial Reform?

Barney Frank now admits he was wrong on Fannie and Freddie in attesting to their financial strength and arguing in the case of trouble that the “federal government doesn’t bail them out.” Of course, he was benefiting from their lobbying largess, $65,000 from 2002 to 2008. And in 2008 despite knowledge to the contrary he assured the public of their financial strength. The Boston Globe treats the political consequences in today’s post. His famous quote though was in 2003: Rep. Frank: I do think I do not want the same kind of focus on safety and soundness that we have in OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency] and OTS [Office of Thrift Supervision]. I want to roll the dice a little bit more in this situation towards subsidized housing.

Well now we have another mortgage mess, the “robo-signer” brouhaha has brought the foreclosure market to a screeching halt with thousands of would be buyers unable to get title or possession of homes in the foreclosure process. And in this economy, the foreclosure market is a big percentage of overall sales.  NRO rightly asked in today’s editorial, Another Mortgage Mess, “didn’t we just have financial reform?”

Yes, we did. The Dodd-Frank bill was passed this year by the Reid-Pelosi Congress and signed by Obama. It was supposed to reform the financial system. It did not touch Fannie and Freddie who are now involved in the mortgage mess. By the way,  the taxpayer subsidy projected for Fannie and Freddie for the next ten years is $370 Billion!

Note despite Obama’s lies about an inherited deficit, the Democrats including Obama controlled Congress and were creating the so-called “Bush deficits” since 2006. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd were in charge of their respective financial committees and watching Fannie and Freddie go down the drain. They ignored warnings, ignored the facts and failed to take any action reforming the dynamic government duo.

This year’s Dodd-Frank lack of reform was too much for CNBC’s recently Rick Santelli: Democrats still don’t get it, and they refuse to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government mortgage companies that sparked the meltdown by giving high-risk loans to people who couldn’t afford it.   Standing up for American taxpayers, CNBC’s on-air editor, Rick Santelli teed off on Rep. Paul Kanjorski’s (D-PA) claim that Democrats’ couldn’t reform Fannie & Freddie in their financial regulation bill because it was “too complicated,” asking: “It’s too complicated?  You think taxpayers that go to work to pay the money you are subsidizing, it will end up a half a trillion, do you think they think complicated is an excuse?

The real chutzpah here is that the Democrats that created the mortgage mess are using the foreclosure red herring to bash the evil bank lenders and pander to the ignorant voters! In so doing they further delay or perhaps stop the current weak recovery!

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. Course, no one ever accused them of being smart!

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Barney Frank Admits the Truth

This is beyond amazing.

Barney Frank, co-author of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis, calls for the elimination of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac!

“August 21, 2010

Barney Frank Comes Home to the Facts

By Larry Kudlow

Can you teach an old dog new tricks? In politics, the answer is usually no. Most elected officials cling to their ideological biases, despite the real-world facts that disprove their theories time and again. Most have no common sense, and most never acknowledge that they were wrong.

But one huge exception to this rule is Democrat Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

For years, Frank was a staunch supporter of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant government housing agencies that played such an enormous role in the financial meltdown that thrust the economy into the Great Recession. But in a recent CNBC interview, Frank told me that he was ready to say goodbye to Fannie and Freddie.

“I hope by next year we’ll have abolished Fannie and Freddie,” he said. Remarkable. And he went on to say that “it was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it.” He then added, “I had been too sanguine about Fannie and Freddie.”

When I asked Frank about a long-term phase-out plan that would shrink Fannie and Freddie portfolios and mortgage-purchase limits, and merge the agencies into the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) for a separate low-income program that would get government out of middle-income housing subsidies, he replied, “Larry, that, I think, is exactly what we should be doing.”

Frank also said that any federal housing guarantees should be transparently priced and put on budget. But he added that the private sector must be encouraged to re-enter housing finance just as the government gradually withdraws from it.

Some would say Frank’s mea culpa is politically motivated in advance of an election where bailout nation and big government are public enemies No. 1 and 2. Of course, poll after poll shows that the $150 billion Fan-Fred bailout, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates could rise to $400 billion, is detested by voters and taxpayers everywhere.

In fact, these failed government agencies are in such bad shape that they can’t even pay Uncle Sam the dividends owed under the conservatorship deal reached two years ago. That’s right. In order to pay a $1.8 billion dividend on Treasury department stock, Fan and Fred had to borrow $1.5 billion from — you guessed it — the Treasury.

Then there’s this head-scratching detail: In an absolutely outrageous move last Christmas Eve, President Obama signed off on $42 million in bonuses for the top 12 Fannie and Freddie executives, including $6 million apiece for the two CEOs. (Hat tip to attorney Stephen B. Meister.)

Voters are on to all this. So politics may indeed be motivating Barney Frank’s turnaround. But I’m going to credit him with more than that.

I think Chairman Frank watched these government behemoths descend into hell and then witnessed the financial catastrophe that ensued. And I think he has come to realize that the whole system of federal affordable-housing mandates that was central to the real-estate collapse — including the mandates on Fannie and Freddie and the myriad bad decisions made by private banks and other lenders in response to the government’s overreach — simply needs to be abolished.

Noteworthy is the fact that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has come to a similar conclusion. Geithner told a recent Washington conference on the future of housing finance that the system needs fundamental change. He said, “We will not support a return to the system where private gains are subsidized by taxpayer losses.”

Of course, the withdrawal of housing markets from government programs, and the onset of a reinvigorated private sector for providing mortgages, must be done gradually over a period of years. But it is possible that the federal mortgage madness is coming to an end.

We will have to see if Congress really does say goodbye to Fan and Fred, as Republicans like Jeb Hensarling are advocating. Equally important, we will have to see if the federal affordable-housing mandates created by Congress and implemented by HUD and banking regulators are similarly repealed.

And then we will have to see if reformed federally guaranteed housing insurance includes larger down payments, stricter underwriting standards and greater reliance on private capital markets, lenders and insurers. In other words, we need to see if housing will be restored to a market-based system and removed from the government-backed system that has proved so disastrous.

The broader lesson here is that government planning doesn’t work. And if left to their own devices, market processes will work. I don’t know if President Obama gets this. But my hat goes off to a man who does, Chairman Barney Frank.”

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July Hayek Dinner: State of the Economy

Our thanks to Tom Cargill for the excellent presentation last evening and to Jerry O’Driscoll for arranging the meeting in my absence.

Jerry opened with a snapshot on employment trends from selected countries since 2008. The US is at the bottom of the pile and trending down!

Tom picked it up from there with a quick look back on the first decade of this century focusing on four remarkable points: 1. US homeland is vulnerable to attack since 911; the first since the war of 1812. 2. Critics of the market are strong despite the increase in standard of living in the last quarter century. 3. Failures of the welfare state notwithstanding, the US is moving toward socialism. And, 4. the political force toward socialism can be traced to our current great recession.

Technically, the recession is still in full force. The question is what kind of recovery will come, weak flat “U” or “J,” or a double dip.  Ten key points are apparent:

  • the US has not seen more economic, financial, and political distress since the Great Depression.
  • our recession was not caused by market failure but mainly by government failure, both monetary with low rates too long and fiscally with housing policies of Fannie-Freddie.
  • yet, the public hypnotized by Obama rhetoric believes market failure was the cause.
  • admittedly, the $700 billion financial bailout was necessary to prevent a liquidity crisis.
  • but the five “stimulus” packages ignored history and had a negative effect, negative Keynesian multiplier, on the GDP. Wasteful spending directed to leftist programs.
  • while we now see some GDP growth, the private sector is not creating jobs and budget pressures will force a decline in public sector employment.
  • the private market is not creating jobs due to the great uncertainty of the rules of the game; we are going to state directed allocation of resources not market directed allocation.
  • Adam Smith calls man an economic animal, “truck, barter, and exchange” but the uncertainty of the rules creates inefficiencies that lower growth potential.
  • the economic game becomes even more uncertain because of the greater role of government; what happens to the chess game if it is announced in the middle of the game that there will be a rule change; Obama is regularly announcing rule changes to come!
  • QED, the most likely “recovery” is a flat “J” over the next several years with a chance of a double dip.

Tom now thinks the chance of a double dip is 50/50, an increase from his earlier thinking. Potential economic shocks which will push toward a double dip are: the dramatic increase in taxes next year, and the questionable stability of the European Union. The current divergence in fiscal policy between the overspending US and the rapid austerity in Europe may well be a third negative shock. Tom concluded saying that only a change in the US congress and administration will offer hope of a solid recovery.

We thank Beth Powers and her crew for her comments and patriotic efforts with LibertyInAmerica.org. Please consider a donation to help continue the fine bus treck.

John Dunn provided a positive report on Yucca mountain efforts, see NV4CFE.org.

Finally, our thanks to Mike Herring for treating the group to dinner and drinks, this an an inducement to make contributions to Sharron Angle’s campaign to retire Dirty Harry.

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