Archive for category Social Security
Leadership In Short Supply Nowadays…But Not With These Two
Posted by Tom in Congress, Liberalism, National Character, Nationalized Health Care, Social Security, State Finances, Unions, Welfare on March 1, 2011
Here are two Reno men who tell it like it is and have the guts to solve the problem, Ty Cobb and Frank Partlow. Their articles follow.
TIME TO REDUCE BENEFITS FOR ALL OF US
The United States and the State of Nevada together are facing budget deficits that threaten the financial viability of the country and the state. The national debt is reaching unprecedented levels– this year alone it will reach a record $1.6 trillion, due to the weak economy, higher spending, and renewed tax cuts.
At the national level, combined expenditures on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are projected to account for 45% of federal spending, up from 27% in 1975. That entitlement spending could triple by 2035. When defense spending, interest on the debt, and federal pensions are added in, this accounts for 86% of federal spending. Interest on the debt currently costs $200 billion annually, but if nothing is done, in just five years the interest on this debt will triple to around $640 billion.
Nevada does not have the luxury of printing money to cover budget deficits, and must have a budget that is balanced. The Governor is set to accomplish that by severe spending cuts and not raising taxes. His opponents in the Legislature have squawked loudly, but have yet to offer an alternative plan. The target of the Governor’s cuts are personnel, since that is where the lion’s share of expenditures go, with a focus on reigning in overly-generous pensions, benefits and salaries, a problem that is even greater at the local government level.
Government employees must be prepared to accept reductions in retirement pensions and pay much more for health benefits. That goes not only for local and state employees, but those who work for or are retired from the federal government, including military retirees. The Defense budget is not sustainable and will have to be reduced in the future, especially to offset soaring retirement and health benefit costs.
Those of us who have reached 65 and are now receiving Social Security and Medicare must also be prepared to accept changes—means testing of Social Security perhaps, more paid in doctor visits and prescriptions. Yes, I know, we who have paid money into the system for decades in good faith have reason to protest while those who have been less thrifty in planning their retirements will not be penalized. It is what it is—not fair, not fair at all, but it must be done.
And those of us who served in the military can make the point that our service was much more demanding and difficult. I, for one, had two tours in Viet-Nam in my 26 years—living in the swamps, fighting off the VC and cobras alike, separated from our families for a year at a time (I only saw my first-born one week the first year of her life!). We moved 17 times our first 13 years of marriage, I worked 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in my 6 years in the White House. No overtime, no sick leave, no padding my retirement with phony “call backs” or special health programs (oh, I do go to the VA, but to participate in an Agent Orange tracking program for those of us exposed to the dangerous defoliant).
Still, the nation cannot afford the entitlement programs that I and many others are eligible for. The state, and especially local governments, is on the verge of a financial crisis and personnel costs, particularly benefits and retirement, must be roped in. It is happening in Wisconsin, New Jersey, Indiana and other states where budgets can only be balanced by reigning in benefits for government employees. GOV Sandoval says it must also happen here, and he is right, but at all levels of government.
It ain’t nice, it isn’t pretty, but it must be done.
-Tyrus W. Cobb
Former Special Assistant to the President, Republished from Nevada Appeal
By Frank Partlow
I can barely spell it, but I am a Septuagenarian. At 72, I receive a federal pension for 34 years of Army service, Social Security, Medicare, Tricare and VA benefits. I believe I am “entitled” to all of that. Septuagenarians disagree on many issues, but not on their “entitlements.”
These entitlements are unsustainable. My federal paymaster is $14.5 trillion in debt and borrowing $1.5 trillion more each year. 72 million entitled “Boomers” are right behind. Social Security is a “Ponzi Scheme” which makes Bernie Madoff blush. I receive as benefits what three current workers pay in. What happens when there are two workers paying in? More federal debt.
The only way to fix the deficit and balance the federal budget is to reduce current and future entitlements, which account for 62% of budget outlays and grow each year. Septuagenarians and Boomers not only cringe at this idea, they vow to unseat any politician foolish enough to suggest it. The problem with that approach is that while they may live long enough to collect, their children and grandchildren will not, even while facing crushing new taxes.
A better way is for each generation to take a hit—mine by some sort of means test for Social Security payments. The Boomers could delay their retirement to say, age 70. Those still paying Social Security taxes could pay in a higher percentage of their salary. We are the only country in the world without age limits on medical procedures, an enormous drain on our Medicare and Medicaid, as health care costs grow by nine percent per year. The potential list of reductions is virtually as endless as the nature of “entitlements” themselves.
When Social Security began, the oldest US generation was the poorest. In part by taking mortgage interest rate deductions on their income taxes for thirty or more years, Septuagenarians are now the richest. Can that continue?
Our parents were called the “Greatest Generation” for getting the US through the Great Depression and World War ll. One can argue about that title, but they did get themselves out of their own jams. My generation won’t even come close to doing that. Septuagenarians must understand that our world, its mores, beliefs, facts and fictions are irrelevant.
We septuagenarians are very opinionated. We caused the problems we now face. Yet, we expect the 50 year olds now in public office to jump at to our solutions. Perspective is the only thing we have to contribute. Experience yields perspective and is what you get while you are looking for something else. Our perspectives will help those younger generations understand that if they do what we did, they will get what we got. They can ignore our advice. However, they will live with their decisions and we will not.
With the wisdom of experience and perspective, my generation should lead the way. If, however, we are unwilling to sacrifice some of what was heretofore promised, we will deserve to be called what we will have become: the “Selfish Generation.”
Special Report for the Northern Nevada Network.
Frank Partlow is a Nevada veteran since 1964 who now lives in downtown Reno
‘People Ready to Hear the Truth” Chris Christie
Posted by Tom in National Character, Politics, Social Security, Welfare on February 18, 2011
What a wonderful contrast to the current President, Chris Christie is a leader:
We will post more segments from his hour long presentation to the American Enterprise Institute.
Fear Mongering Is No Substitute For Leadership
Posted by Tom in Deficit, Entitlements, Fiscal Policy, Social Security on February 4, 2011
As Charles Blahous notes in his “Slash” op-ed in yesterday’s WSJ, during the State of the Union address “Mr. Obama mentioned Social Security only long enough to issue vague warnings against “putting at risk current retirees” and “slashing benefits for future generations.”
As has been recently reported, this year alone Social Security is projected to collect $45 Billion less in payroll taxes than it pays out in benefits. This deficit is projected to continue each year until the fund is exhausted in 2037. Our president is not unaware of this. In fact, in that same speech he failed to mention the bipartisan reforms proposed by his own Commission of Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.
It’s worthwhile to review the history of Social Security a fairly concise summary of which is offered by Wikipedia. It is interesting to see the twists and turns the history has taken. It has been a political football with over-promising and mistaken formulae.
Indeed, the formula which Blahous criticizes was inserted in the law to correct an over-indexing mistake which increased payments at double the rate of inflation. “Since 1977, Social Security has employed a formula that links a retiree’s initial benefit payment to growth in the national average wage index. Since wages tend to grow faster than prices, this formula pays younger cohorts greater benefits (in inflation-adjusted terms) than those paid to earlier retirees.”
“The rationale behind this is to provide the same replacement rate (i.e., benefits as a percentage of pre-retirement earnings) for “similarly situated” workers of different generations. In other words, if a typical worker’s benefit today is 50% of his previous wage earnings, then that worker’s grandson, assuming he occupies the same relative position in the national wage distribution, will also get a benefit equal to 50% of his own earnings.”
“What this means practically is that today’s medium-wage retiree receives a benefit just below $18,000 at the normal retirement age. But benefits scheduled for a medium-wage retiree of 2050 would equal nearly $29,000 in today’s dollars.”
“To slow the growth of tax burdens, therefore, the benefit formula must grow more slowly. Current wage- indexing doesn’t create benefit equity across generations. Rather, it ensures that each successive generation must pay higher taxes to get the same replacement rate.”
“Most responsible reform proposals recognize that the benefit formula needs to change. Under the proposal put forward by the commission’s co-chairs, Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, for example, the medium-wage worker of 2050 would get a benefit somewhat over $24,000 (in today’s dollars) at normal retirement age. This amount is not as much as the current system is promising, but still offers far more purchasing power than today’s retirees possess.”
Blahous points out that none of the reform proposals would “slash” benefits. For the President to imply such is demagoguery, typical of the class-war rhetoric he’s wont to fall back upon. And this when courageous leadership is the order of the day.
Deficit Reduction-Competing Plans
Posted by Tom in Business, Centrally Managed Economy, Congress, Deficit, Democrats, Entitlements, Environment, Financial Policy, Foreign Trade, Government Regulation, National Character, National Debt, National Endowments and GSEs, Social Security, Taxation, Unions on November 17, 2010
Now we have another deficit reduction plan to compare the the Obama Deficit Reduction Commission plan, this the “Bipartisan Policy Center Debt Reduction Task Force” announced by Alice Rivlin and Pete Domenici. Here’s the WSJ high level comparison:
We won’t reduce deficits and their concomitant generation burdening debt until we reform congressional spending. Listening to another commission or task-force will not do the trick. Congress must get serious and tell the truth to the America people–there is no free lunch, THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH!
In addition to reducing the deficit, we must promote an environment for growth: certainty of taxation well into the future, certainty of limited regulation of business, and elimination of rent-seeking-giving subsidies and regulations.
All the principles of freedom and growth are anathema to the current state of Obamaism: Instead of reforming Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security Obama’s Democrats added Obamacare as an additional unsustainable entitlement with concomitant business and personal uncertainty. Instead of cleaning up the Fannie-Freddie generated financial mess Obama’s Democrats continued the charade of propping them up to do more future damage. Instead of cutting unnecessary spending, Obama’s Democrats passes such folly as cash for clunkers and bought GM for the UAW. So, bottom line, oppose Obama’s Democrats while they’re in office and turn them out of office ASAP.
A few basic economic growth imperatives;
- Repeal Obamacare while eliminating employer tax benefit subsidies, while eliminating interstate insurance competition barriers and while enacting stringent malpractice tort reform; reform Medicare over time as a high-deductible insurance policy with means testing; and reform Social Security with later retirement, means-testing and private accounts as an option for the means tested high-earners.
- Go for a flat, low-rate income tax both personal and corporate, eliminating extraterritorial corporate taxation, and all personal deductions, including home mortgage deductions.
- Eliminate all federal agency rule-making. If Congress can’t define it specifically as a law, then it should not govern, period! Now, there will obviously be extremely well defined and narrow exceptions to this like the difference in typeface, boldness or color of signs and warnings!
- Abolish all subsidies and mandates, farm subsidies/mandates, green subsidies/mandates, ethanol subsidies/mandates. If a product or service is not in and of itself economic enough or green enough to make it in the free market, then it should fail. In no case should it be subsidized.
- Eliminate all trade barriers that protect unions or their work rules. The Mexican trucking proscription under NAFTA is an example.
- Negotiate, sign and ratify as many free trade deals as are reasonable. As the world’s largest consumer, we hav the leverage, if we would only use it intelligently.
- Preclude all public service unions. Repeal Taft-Hartley and minimum wage laws.
- Eliminate all unnecessary government spending like, NPR, NEH, Department of Education, etc.
- Eliminate and forego all unfunded mandates to the states. Federalism must be re-energized and government pushed down to lower levels.
We need to get the point across to the American people that we are broke. We can’t afford the free lunches anymore. We need individual responsibility. We are not a socialistic nation.
In short, if we got government out of the way, this country would once again blossom!
If Greece is Europe’s Achilles Heel…and Europe Falls….
Posted by Tom in Economics, Entitlements, Europe, National Character, National Debt, Nationalized Health Care, Social Security, Welfare on April 28, 2010
I’ve seen items from John Muldin and George Friedman this week analyzing the Greek debt/deficit debacle. Greece is one of the PIIGS of Club Med, the European nations who cannot afford their welfare systems. Greece cannot borrow to fund its largess; its credit rating is junk according to S&P. It is seeking European and IMF bailout aid, the amount of which is dependent on uncovering the accounting tricks it has heretofore used. Normally the IMF would use devaluation as one tool but that is not possible here because of the Euro. Greece will fail.
Sovereign debt problems are forecast for Spain and Portugal also, as they have suffered downgrades. Causes of their problems are similar but the significance is greater as the Spanish economy along with Italy which may follow soon is simply too big for Germany to bail out. Fiscal contagion is a serious problem.
So, let a few PIIGS fail, so what? Problem here is with the European banks. They hold the PIIGS bonds. Without regard to those underwater assets, the European banks were already in trouble since they did not clean up their bad real estate related assets. Think the Japanese banks of the 1990s. Friedman says the even at the peak of the U.S. subprime crisis European banks were in worse shape. How much worse shape now with the PIIGS crisis?
A Euro devaluation? A break-up of the European Union? At least, a significant period of de-stability for a major consumer in the world economy and a significant producer in that economy. Germany will survive in better shape than the rest. The PIIGS are likely to exist outside a re-formed European Union.
Add the fact that the U.S. is not the consumer that it once was. Thankfully, it is de-leveraging more, saving more, and consuming less. It hopes to expand its exports but who will pay the desired price? China? The rest of Asia? Thus the world economy will really be upside-down with a lot of areas trying to be producers but none trying to be consumers!
But the real concern is that the U.S. is a budding Greece bubble waiting to pop. In ten short years 93 cents of every dollar of government revenue will go to pay entitlements and interest on the debt. Obama has put us on the path to become a Europe on steroids just when Europe is exploding! Before Obama took office our entitlements thanks to Roosevelt, Johnson and Bush were on an unsustainable path. Rather than correct this Obama added another major entitlement, Obamacare, which will bankrupt our nation.
Several questions present themselves in this scenario: What of defense? Iran, North Korea, Russia and China are all real and potential problems. We spend so much on butter that we con’t afford guns. What of our assets and businesses? In a declining economy how will be work, live and invest? And, from a personal survival standpoint if the economy declines toward the subsistance level, is it guns and gold to survive? I know my farming skills aren’t all that good!
But there is hope if we recognize that big government must be drastically cut, public employee pensions and compensation reduced to the level of private compensation, entitlements including social security, medicare and medicaid cut in half, and Obamacare repealed and replaced by consumer-based, non-tax advantaged health care. We have a very short window in which to accomplish this dramatic turnaround. Let’s educate the voters and elect people who will get the job done.
Party’s Over……….Hangover Starts
Posted by Tom in Deficit, Democrats, National Debt, Nationalized Health Care, Social Security, Welfare on March 25, 2010
As Pelosi said, “we have to pass this bill so that you can find out what is in it.” Well, it’s still early, but we’re starting to find out. And it looks ugly. Publicly traded companies can’t hide, lie, and obfuscate bad news like the Democrats do, so Caterpillar announced a medical cost increase of at least $100 million in the first year alone. Deere and Verizon followed warning of a cost increase as a result of Obamacare. You can bet these announcements will be followed by more like them with consequent impact on employees and shareholders alike. See: WSJ’s Obamacare Day One, and Deer, Caterpillar: Health-Care Law to Raise Expenses.
But it’s not only public companies that will be effected. I spoke with a small Reno business owner about Obamacare impacts. This employer now provides healthcare to its 25 employees at significant expense and significant employee contribution. Under the new law, it will drop healthcare coverage and the employees can under the government insurance exchange obtain healthcare at approximately the same costs as they are contributing to the current group policy. Business profits improve, employees have the same expenses with the government subsidized insurance. Only the taxpayers lose.
Wait, that’s a gross understatement. Not only do the taxpayers lose now, but their children and grandchildren are saddled with staggering public debt and unfunded liabilities from Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. And now Obama has added a new, gigantic unfunded liability.
Thanks Nancy, we’re now starting to find out what’s in it!
Add Costs, Regulation, & Government…Subtract a Bright Future
Posted by Tom in Centrally Managed Economy, Democrats, Nationalized Health Care, Social Security, Welfare on March 21, 2010
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the CBO, penned an op-ed in the NYT yesterday, The Real Arithmetic of Health Care Reform, in which he points out that the CBO’s ten-year cost estimate of $950 billion and deficit reduction of $138 billion is an estimate of fantasy. The CBO can’t comment on the fictions in the bill before it. The current Obamacare bill will actually produce a deficit increase of $562 for the same reasons outlined by Paul Ryan. He uses words like, gimmicks, budgetary games, front loading costs without benefits, leaving costs out entirely, manipulates, slight of hand, unrealistic, and stolen.
“The stakes could not be higher. As documented in another recent budget office analysis, the federal deficit is already expected to exceed at least $700 billion every year over the next decade, doubling the national debt to more than $20 trillion. By 2020, the federal deficit — the amount the government must borrow to meet its expenses — is projected to be $1.2 trillion, $900 billion of which represents interest on previous debt……..The health care legislation would only increase this crushing debt. It is a clear indication that Congress does not realize the urgency of putting America’s fiscal house in order.”
Holtz-Eakkin’s piece largely confirms a post by Cato’s Michael Tanner in NRO this weekend, Predictions; Reno Hayek members will recall that Michael spoke to us last year about this time. He reasonably prognosticates: One, that the bill will cost more than advertised not only because of the gimmicks and deceit but because all major government programs do. In ’65 Medicare was projected to cost $9 billion by 1990; it came in seven times higher at $67 billion. Two, insurance premiums will increase. The bill will do nothing to lessen the 200% increase, by CBO estimate. Three, quality of care will be worse. The bill will accelerate doctor retirements at the same time it adds patients to the system.
Scarier yet, four, the leftist will keep pushing for more. To quote Pelosi, “once we kick through this door, there’ll be more legislation to follow,” in other words, this is the first step to single payer government healthcare. Five, Republicans won’t try to repeal it because they won’t be able to get the required veto proof majority in both houses or the presidency plus the filibuster proof Senate.
At a time when serious attention should be devoted to getting our fiscal house in order, by at a minimum avoiding the demographically certain failure of medicare, social security and medicaid, Obama has loaded the country’s future generation with a new middle class entitlement destine for the same future as those welfare programs. It will beget unsustainable debt, burdensome regulation, and big government growth and taxation which will detract from our future private economy. It is the greatest intergenerational immorality in modern times.
Our Creditors Are Nervous……..Do You Blame Them?
Posted by Tom in Centrally Managed Economy, Deficit, Financial Policy, Foreign Trade, Monetary Policy, National Debt, Nationalized Health Care, Social Security, Statism, Welfare on March 15, 2010
Bloomberg reports today that China and Japan reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries again in January. In fact, China has been a net seller for three straight months.
“Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week sought assurances that the U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets. At a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings two days ago, Wen said dollar volatility is a “big” concern and “I’m still worried” about China’s U.S. currency holdings.”
“Wen urged U.S. officials to “take concrete steps to reassure investors” about the safety of dollar assets, repeating concerns that he expressed a year ago, sparked by a growing U.S. fiscal deficit.”
“China’s share of U.S. bills, notes and bonds in January amounted to 24 percent of the total $3.7 trillion in Treasuries owned by investors abroad, up from 19 percent three years ago, according to Treasury data.”
With record Obama deficits, unsustainable national debt, and gigantic unfunded liabilities from welfare programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security inflation is a real threat. Add to that the demographically certain bankruptcy of these programs, the worry becomes all the more acute. Instead of a sober attempt to remedy the situation we have a socialist president on a hell-bent-for-leather campaign to add to welfare with Obamacare’s takeover of 16% of the U.S. economy. So Obama’s answer to a non-economic, non-functioning welfare system is to add a gigantic new program to it. How, with gimmicks and double counting!
If your a creditor with long-dated U.S. paper it’s reasonable to think you will be paid back with devalued dollars. And given the uncertainty caused by Obama’s socialistic, statist push of the economy, it’s reasonable to think that American consumers will not be back to buy your exports anytime soon. How can they, they don’t have jobs!
In short, our creditors should worry. And we should worry all the more!
Tom Motherway
A Politician Who Tells the Hard Truth
Posted by Tom in Deficit, Nationalized Health Care, Politics, Social Security, Welfare on March 4, 2010
I listened to Chris Matthews MSNBC’s leftist Obama fan at the Bohemian Grove last summer and met him after the panel discussion; he is indeed liberal. That made me appreciate all the more his recent interview with Representative Paul Ryan from Wisconsin. The “unsustainability” of the current welfare system is the topic and Chris recognizes our need to defend ourselves at the same time, but he doesn’t seem to connect the dots!
In any case, I like this guy, Ryan.
Tom Motherway
Nevada’s Constitutional Standoff-Governor Gibbons is Correct
Posted by Tom in Economics, Education Facts & Policies, Nevada, Politics, Social Security, Unions on January 11, 2010
The spend and spend Democrats in the Nevada Legislature and their SEIU and Teachers Union (NSEA) employers have bristled at Governor Gibbons proposal to put the state back on the track of fiscal responsibility and adopt his educational reform proposal.
To refresh your memory from my January 7th post, the proposal embodied the following:
- Abolish collective bargaining. This has no place in government.
- Abolish the class-size reduction program, a make-work union rule. (There were 70 in my 3rd grade with one teacher!)
- Create a statewide school voucher system.
- Eliminate full-day kindergarten requirement.
- Repeal the prohibition against using student achievement data in teacher evaluations. Another union boondoggle rule!
Sensible, practical proposals for a state facing deficits, unfunded liabilities, and declining revenue this year and next at the very minimum. But the fat cat Democrats howled because their union bosses told them to howl!
So the Governor has asked the legislative leadership to draft bills along those lines for consideration in a special session. The Democratic leadership has refused. The Governor has contemplated a lawsuit against the legislature. Unfortunately this has echos of Guinn v. Legislature. Recall that was another phony, laughable suit filed by RINO Guinn and his then Attorney General Brian Sandoval against the legislature to compel action on the budget. Result: laughable decision derided nationally as reported in the WSJ and finally recanted by the same Supreme Court that issued it!
The Governor has correctly made his point. The Democrats have made theirs and shown who owns them–not the voters but the unions! The remedy for this constitutional standoff is at the ballot box, not in the Supreme Court. Simply, the Court cannot legally, constitutionally compel legislative action. The Democrats will have failed to do their Constitutional duty to consider legislation proposed to correct our fiscal insanity. Then, let the Nevada voters decide if they want the public servants making more money, with better benefits, and higher unfunded pensions that the average voters have. Let the Nevada voters decide if they want the state and local governments to be bankrupt while the fat cat Democrats laugh all the way to the bank.
Unfortunately, Brian Sandoval the Republican candidate opposing Governor Jim Gibbons for the party’s nomination, has shown himself to be the spend and spend RINO he was when he argued the Guinn v. Legislature lawsuit many years ago. He too opposes Governor Guinn’s very good proposals on education reform and fiscal sanity.
Tom Motherway
