Archive for category State Finances

Democratic Governors Face Their Own Mess

And it’s not pretty. Yesterday’s WSJ editorializes on “The Blue Men Group,” a wonderful pun treating California, Illinois, and New York, all essentially bankrupt. One chart is worth a thousand words, this one ranks the three spendthrifts in terms of tax climate for businesses, all are pretty near the bottom:

But focus on CA for the moment, NV’s neighbor upon whom so much depends. Jerry Brown will reprise the position he had in 1976, then sworn in with his girlfriend, Linda Ronstadt at his side. Jerry is responsible for public employee unions in the state. Now he must face the mess he created with a $28 Billion deficit and multiples of that in unfunded pension liabilities.

One other issue he may want to look at is the welfare system. It seems that CA’s welfare credit cards are good worldwide!

Good luck!

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History Lesson in State Defaults

Dennis Berman pens an excellent history lesson in today’s WSJ, When States Default: 2011, Meet 1841. Illinois one of today’s default candidates along with its neighbor Indiana and six others defaulted on their bonds. The consequences were severe and long lasting, bond yields skyrocketed and lending dried up. Taxes also skyrocketed.

Berman quotes Randall Kroszner a former Fed Governor and University of Chicago who in discussing today’s state default possibilities advocates “a clear legal framework, and a clear way in which people would be treated.” Of course, that is now lacking since there is no bankruptcy provision covering states.

I reiterate my calls: 1 For a voluntary bankruptcy provision allowing states access to the federal bankruptcy courts on a voluntary basis. This is politically appealing for governors and legislators alike as it gives them the leverage to negotiate with both public unions and bondholders. 2. For a statute precluding the Fed from making loans to or guaranteeing obligations of a sovereign state. And, 3. for a constitutional amendment prohibiting federal bailouts of any of the sovereign states either by way of grant, loan or guarantee. This latter bootstrap point, even though as Berman points out: “Congress, meanwhile, helped set a precedent that still holds: In 1843, it rejected an elaborate plan for a bailout, with one critic later observing it would “cause recklessness and extravagance” among the states. Surely, someone will dust off those ideas in 2011.” In my opinion, the reason it still holds, if it still holds, is that no one has tested it!

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Will’s Non-remedy Remedy

It’s not often that I disagree with George Will, but his Sunday WaPo post, A remedy for beggar states, touts Devin Nunes’ “Public Employee Pension Transparency Act” as a solution for the gross state/municipal pension over-promise/under-fund mess. That bill would require public disclosure of pension investment return assumptions and funding deficits; it would stipulate that the states or local government are “entirely responsible” for their obligations and that the federal government will provide no bailouts. Non-compliance would result in ineligibility for tax free municipal bond issuance. Unfortunately, this is not a remedy at all, but a mere disclosure requirement with a penalty for non-compliance that would merely exacerbate state fiscal problems; and a statutory bailout prohibition implies that it can be statutorily reversed by a later congress, even-though such is not one of the constitutionally enumerated powers.

Granted the problem is severe threatening the solvency of several spendthrift states like CA, IL and NY. The political classes in those states have no political will to deal with the public employee unions at the heart of the problem. The voters given a chance to cure the problem have voted not to do so; San Francisco is the most recent example.

There is a solution, a fairly simple solution: 1. statutorily provide for states to declare voluntary bankruptcy, 2. statutorily preclude Federal Reserve bailout of states, and finally 3. constitutionally prohibit any federal bailout of states by direct loan or guarantee.

Two recent posts on this site treated the issue: Open Letter to Senators, Congressmen and Governors,  and A Stitch In Time! Particularly With Financial Catastrophe! These are politically palatable and popular decisions with a majority of the states and their residents.

And, time for a remedy is now. The situation is critical.


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Open Letter to Senators, Congressmen, and Governors

I am concerned with the financial straights of a few of our spendthrift states, particularly California, Illinois, and New York. Their potential impact on our Republic is devastating. This, because of the political temptation to “bail them out” as we have recently done with institutions such as AIG, GM, Fannie and Freddie.  Indeed, the lack of fiscal discipline on the part of the federal government has been well demonstrated. And the line of least political resistance is the road most often taken in Washington.

Three solutions are called for: first, Congress must enact an amendment to the bankruptcy code allowing the states to go through bankruptcy; it would be similar to the provisions that now exist for their municipalities.  This would be voluntary bankruptcy only, so as to avoid the constitutional issue of sovereign immunity. In other words, when sought by the governor of a state, the federal bankruptcy court would have mandatory jurisdiction.

Enactment of such a statute has political appeal at the federal level, giving the government an alternative to bailouts. It also has political appeal at the state level by giving the debtor states leverage to negotiate with creditors, contractors and employee unions well in advance of actually going bankrupt.  It also helps instill the political will to right the financial imbalances.

Second, Congress must statutorily prohibit the Federal Reserve Bank from becoming a lender of last resort to any of the sovereign states. If this were not enacted at the time of the state bankruptcy enactment, the states would be able to end-run the bankruptcy provision by appealing to the Fed. The issue is too important to leave to the Fed.

Finally, Congress should propose an amendment to the Constitution precluding the federal government from assuming, guaranteeing, paying for the obligations of any of the sovereign states, or otherwise bailing them out from those obligations. While under the enumerated powers of the constitution in Article I and the reservation of rights clause of the Tenth Amendment, this is arguably not imperative, but it is important politically to give the spendthrift states the will to reform on their own. It will also be a step to right the upside-down federal-state relationship and return us to the federal republic envisioned by our founding fathers.

I am part of an economic group, the Reno Hayek Symposium; for your reference, its website, http://renohayek.com, has several posts on point under the “bankruptcy” category.

Please do everything in your power to push the enactment of these solutions on a priority basis.

A very concerned voter,

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Federal-State Downward Spiral is Intractable

In theory, the depression-vintage, federal-state unemployment insurance program was supposed to build reserves in good years so those reserves could be paid out in years of high unemployment. Like other federal government programs it doesn’t work that way.

Randy York called our attention this morning to a Reno Gazette Journal item announcing a 50% increase in the unemployment insurance rates paid by Nevada employers for each employee, $180 on average. On top of that the federal tax will increase by $21 to $77 per average employee; this to cover interest on Nevada’s debt to the federal government with the current balance at $579 million but growing by $300 million in 2011! So Cindy Jones the administrator of the Nevada Employment Security Division argues the necessity, though strangely she is supported by people in the Chamber of Commerce.

Randy analogizes this to “spending our way out of debt,” arguing that the new mantra is that “we can tax our way back to a healthy business environment and lower unemployment.” What are they thinking! Jerry O’Driscoll says the “unemployment benefits have turned into long-term welfare.” Joe Morabito points out that even Denmark cut the benefit duration down to two years and only then did people find work! Indeed, there is a significant amount of economic thought that maintains the unemployment benefits have the unintended effect of extending the duration of unemployment.

The consequences, unintended or otherwise, here in Nevada will be to increase unemployment, close businesses, and frighten California businesses that would have otherwise settled here upon their left coast exits. Note too, this is at a time when Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation.

Now this is only one federal-state tie. There are others in education, medicaid, environment, highways, airports, federal land management, energy, you name it. The relationships involve grants with strings, funding with local tax requirements, joint funding, and unfunded mandates. The major state budget deficits center on medicaid and education both involve federal programs.

I wonder how well off the states would be without all this federal “help?” Missouri, my home state, for instance, has no illegal immigration problem to speak of because the voters designated English as the official language and in another action required law enforcement officers to verify immigration status. Illegals have no mandated access to welfare like food stamps or healthcare. State action. Problem avoided or solved! Now I don’t want to seem flippant, but I wonder how the economy would improve if states took over unemployment insurance and severely limited its scope and duration?

Now consider the federal-state partnership in this downward spiral. That lopsided, unconstitutionally intended relationship is at the heart of the problems. The states have ceded control of problems that they should more appropriately handle. And the federal government has too much control of things it has no business being in in the first place. Our federal system is upside-down and likely to remain so until we restore some sense in the citizenry that we are a republic composed of sovereign state and the citizens thereof, from whence all political power and responsibility derive.

So my take: return election of the senators to the states, preclude federal bailout of spendthrift states, and provide a bankruptcy mechanism for states to legally and politically extricate themselves from their prior unsustainable excesses. Some of them in fact owed to the federal government!

Just a thought!

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Restore Federalism–It’s Imperative

This news item caught my eye, the DOT is billing Chris Christie the governor of New Jersey $271 million for refusing to subject the New Jersey taxpayers to the costs of overruns for the phantom Hudson River tunnel. The bureaucrats are pissed! Not “hell hath no furry like a woman scorned” but, ‘hell hath no furry like the DOT leftist bureaucrats scorned!’

“It’s not surprising that the same federal transit agency that had no clear way to pay for cost overruns of a project already hurt by poor planning and inequitable cost-sharing is relying on bureaucratic power plays to wring even more money out of New Jerseyans,” he said.

Christie notes that other states that have similarly pulled the plug on federally funded transportation projects have not been forced to repay money that’s already been spent.

The strict 30-day deadline reeks of petty vindictiveness aimed at a governor who’s increasingly being spoken of as a 2012 GOP presidential candidate.

The big shot federal spenders transfer all kinds of mandates and hooks to the states, this and Medicaid being examples that come to mind.

We need to stop this silliness and return the roles of government to their proper spheres. Feds handle national concerns, defense, disputes between states and their citizens, interstate and foreign commerce, foreign relations and little else. (No education, energy, labor, housing, just to name a few.) States handle judicial matters between citizen litigants, education, and public infrastructure. All else is left to the individual, family, community organization, local charity, synagog, church, or mosque.  This is known as the principle of subsidiarity: let the lowest cognizant part of society handle what it should be capable of handling.

In a recent post I echoed the call for repeal of the 17th Amendment resulting in the states’ election of senators. This for the additional check and balance on the power of special interests in direct elections and the reinforcement of states rights and responsibilities. That is important in this runaway federal spending and taxing orgy foisted upon us by Obama, Pelosi, Reid and the leftist Democrats.

We really need to return governing power and responsibility to the states and to the individuals. It is the only way we can reign in the overreaching federal government. Our Tenth Amendment reads: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” Let’s return to the time when we lived by that sage amendment to our founding document!

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A Stitch In Time! Particularly With Financial Catastrophe!

You heard it here first, or at least part of it: we need to prepare for a state finance catastrophe. The current issue of the Weekly Standard features a cover article by David Skeel, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania, Give States a Way to Go Bankrupt, It’s the best option for avoiding a massive federal bailout. In it he points up the well-known problems like CA and IL, refutes the constitutionality objections, then argues the benefits of the deus ex machina that such a bankruptcy provision would provide politically!

Skeel first dispels the notion that because states are constitutionally “sovereign” in our federal system, they cannot go bankrupt. The objection here is the “sovereign immunity” enjoyed by sovereign governments at common law, namely that the sovereign cannot be sued unless it consents to be sued. In modern parlance this is accomplished by statute, such as the Federal Tort Claims Act for suits against the U.S. Skeel grants that immunity by providing that the bankruptcy of states can only be a voluntary bankruptcy, not an involuntary one. Thus, a state creditor cannot force a state into bankruptcy as a private creditor can with a private debtor. He views it as a tool for a recasting, reformation or avoidance of state obligations. He dismisses the private bankruptcy liquidation of assets analogy by analogizing his suggested state bankruptcy provision to the existing municipal bankruptcy provision. Indeed, municipalities like Orange County CA have successfully gone through bankruptcy.

In a well stated political argument Skeel then points out that a statutory voluntary bankruptcy provision for the states would give not only presidents cover but also provide cover to governors who would merely pass the tough decisions to the bankruptcy judge. Can you imagine Obama turning down an IL bail out request, or Governor Moonbeam turning the teachers union down! Suffice it to say that the proposition presents a very practical, legal solution to a looming catastrophe that we all know is about to occur.

This should be a priority with the 112th Congress in January. It should be a no brainer for both sides of the asile to pass.

I confess a bit of disappointment that Skeel didn’t advocate my second step, namely a constitutional amendment making it impossible or at least extremely difficult for the federal government to bail out spendthrift states. This though is more cumbersome and time consuming in passage, however, just as popular politically. It should be undertaken as soon as the bankruptcy provision is passed.

Enjoying Skeel’s article as I did, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention his new book: “Understanding the Dood-Frank Act and its (Unintended) Consequences.”

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Debt Problem? Solution: More Debt! And You’re A Lender!

Makes absolutely no sense at all. Greece has a debt problem, can’t pay its debts when due; so the EU together with the IMF bail it out. How by lending it more money! Ireland has a problem, can’t pay its obligations when due, so the EU together with the IMF lend Ireland more money. Spain and Portugal see this and demand a larger bailout pool while the financial markets worry about “contagion.”

John Cochrane, a finance professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, calls a spade a spade in yesterday’s WSJ op-ed, ‘Contagion’ and Other Euro Myths. The EU/IMF bail out facility promises that no sovereign bond holder will lose a cent at least for now. Basically what that says is that those lenders holding EU country debt now have a super guarantee. This is a guarantee to which they are not entitled. They did not bargain for this when they made the loans by buying the bonds. Their credit underwriting said that Spain, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal (the PIGS) were creditworthy at the interest rates charged. In short those lenders made underwriting mistakes.

So what happens when borrowers can’t pay? Normally, they restructure their obligations, sometimes extending maturities, and other times by having the principal balance reduced. In other words the lenders take a haircut. Why can’t this be done in Europe?

Now who are those dumb lenders, the sovereign bond holders, that the EU is so anxious to bail out? Well, they are the European and UK banks, principally those in France and Germany. To bail out dumb lenders or to guarantee them is bad policy. It denies the market discipline necessary for a functioning economy. It promotes moral hazard which simply means that those same lenders will not change their sloppy underwriting, will make more bad loans, and will expect future bailouts. Failure is just as essential to the marketplace as success.

As Cochrane points out the “contagion”  boogyman is a myth: “The bailout is being justified on grounds of containing “contagion.” This is nonsense. The notion is that news of an Irish restructuring would scare investors in Spanish bonds, who would start looking at Spain’s ability to repay its debts and then demand higher interest rates.”

“But haven’t investors in Spanish bonds already noticed that there’s a bit of a problem? And wouldn’t news of a giant bailout make these investors question Spanish finances as much as would news of debt restructuring?”

“Any contagion is entirely self-inflicted. The only way Ireland’s fate affects Spanish investors is by changing the odds that the European Union (EU) will bail out Spain. And Spanish interest rates are rising, suggesting investors now think a Spanish bailout is less, not more, likely.”

On top of that all, U.S. taxpayers are putting money in to the unnecessary bailout facility. Yep, that’s right, the U.S. is the largest national contributor to the International Monetary Fund. So with our current weak economy, continuing deficits, and generation choking debt, we via the IMF are digging our hole deeper. The sad thing is that we have the ability to block the IMF action. But we don’t.

Question, will the United States face the same issues with our spendthrift sovereign states like CA, IL, and NY?  Or will we get smart and (1) enact a state bankruptcy provision and (2) pass a constitutional amendment precluding bailouts? Something to ponder!

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Obama: Bailout King or Head Pusher?

We read in today’s WSJ that 30 of the 50 states face deficits totaling more that $127 Billion. We also read that the Obama administration wants to permanently extend the federal subsidy for Build America Bonds, the program that uses your hard-earned dollars to reduce interest on state bond issues.

Steven Malanga in his op-ed, The ‘Build America’ Debt Bomb, points out the enabling nature of this addictive federal program for the spendthrift states. The BAB was initiated to help prop up the muni bond market at a time when private bond insurers were thought to be in trouble. It would subsidize higher rates so that new non-taxable investors would come into the muni market. It was designed as temporary and perhaps temporarily justifiable. But like all temporary taxes, like all temporary handouts, like all temporary unemployment insurance, and like all temporary bailouts, in the hands of the Democrats, it tends to become permanent.

The greatest user of the program is the bankrupt state of California which has issued $21 Billion of BABs. Note that CA’s credit is in the tank. Its taxes are among the highest. Its regulatory climate among the harshest. And its green regulatory costs astronomical. As you may have heard CA has an ongoing budget problem to the tune of $20 Billion. It’s ongoing in the sense that the $20 Billion is expected to repeat itself. With a Democratic governor and legislature, there is little hope. If CA can’t tax more for fear of driving out more businesses and CA can’t borrow more from traditional muni investors because its credit is in the tank, then it must look to new markets for lenders. Obama’s BAB drug will continue to serve up sucker new investors but at a costs to the U.S. taxpayers. Why should we pay this?

Malanga points out: “The Obama administration believes the BABs’ direct federal subsidy is a more efficient way to raise money than traditional tax-free municipals. But when money that would otherwise go to private business flows into subsidized government activities, resources are misallocated.

“This is no idle speculation: The financial press is full of stories of investment managers recommending BABs over corporate bonds with similar ratings, thanks to the advantage of federal subsidy. There is also a future bailout risk, given that the federal government might not allow a state or local government to default on a Build America Bond. None of this is what voters signed up for on Nov. 2.”

As I pointed out in a recent post, as long as someone else will pay for the free lunch, there is no reason for the states to stop stuffing themselves. States will only face reality when they are forced to face reality. Congress should reject the BAB extension, provide for state bankruptcy, and promote a constitutional amendment precluding the federal bailout of sovereign states. Oh, and repeal the 17th Amendment; we need a return to federalism.

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State Bankruptcy Law Needed, Likewise an Amendment

Fehrenbach’s San Antonio Express-News post in RCP today scared me. In discussing the states pension ponzi schemes, California and New York worst among them, he concludes: “When they go broke, no way will the federal apparat, Democrat or Republican, let them wreck the American economy through bankruptcy. Not the American way. We’ll print money, bail them out, while they re-elect the same folks who led them into Red Sea waters.” While this is contrary to the hope expressed in my recent post, it presents a stark warning that demands prescriptive action.

No one doubts that several states are de facto bankrupt. Their current expenses exceed their receipts. Their long term liabilities are unfunded and in most cases unrecorded. The assumptions for these long term obligations are unrealistic. Their public employee unions will not relent in demands for increases nor will they ever consider givebacks. Their liberal politicians will not cut government services since to do so will offend public employee unions. And while those politicians will raise taxes, to do so is to drive out taxpayers and taxpaying businesses who can vote with their feet. Finally, their credit ratings continue to deteriorate bringing these states ever closer to the financial precipice. Only last year California was issuing IOUs to suppliers.

The U.S. Bankruptcy Code provides for bankruptcies of municipalities, cities, counties, etc. but does not provide for the bankruptcy of states. This needs to be remedied immediately.

First, the new congress should pass legislation providing for state bankruptcy. There is no other logical way to reform state obligations.

Next, the new congress should also propose a constitutional amendment prohibiting the federal government from bailing out states that face bankruptcy.

The combination of these two measures if adopted will lend added force to political solutions necessary to reform these spendthrift states. Finally, this is a necessary step to a long needed return to the federalism this country was founded upon.

The United States simply cannot afford to bail out the bankrupt states. The federal government itself is close to bankruptcy.

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